Bitcoin is struggling to find a stable floor of support as bears appear to be taking over the market. Historical price action suggests that BTC must hold above $ 37,300 to avoid surrender.
Bitcoin bulls submit to bears?
Bitcoin has broken the USD 45,000 support and risks falling lower. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at a multi-month low of $ 41,343.
The Fib retracement indicator, measured from the June 2021 low of $ 28,750 to the all-time high of $ 69,000, suggests that Bitcoin will continue to decline. The next major demand barrier below the top cryptocurrency is between $ 39,000 and $ 37,300.
Such a zone of special interest could offer enough strength to hold the price as the Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential will give a buy-signal on the weekly chart. This bullish pattern predicts that around January 17th, Bitcoin could start a 1- to 4-week rally or a new bullish countdown.
The potential buying pressure generated over the next 2 weeks is crucial for Bitcoin to regain its 50-day moving average (MA) at USD 50,000 as support and move towards record highs.
If the bulls aren’t gaining enough momentum it can take a toll as the 100 and 200 day MAs are the last demand zones below BTC. These key levels are $ 30,000 and $ 19,000, respectively.
Source: trade view
While surrender may be unrealistic right now, given the strong fundamentals supporting Bitcoin, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests otherwise.
The RSI seems to behave in a certain way every time Bitcoin has surrendered since the 2014 bear market. The momentum indicator tends to fall to 42, then recovers, and then falls below the support. This support marks the beginning of a sell-off.
Similar market behavior has occurred in the past 6 months. In July 2021, the RSI rebounded from 42 to hit 69 in November 2021. Subsequent rejection pushed the indicator back down to its current level of 42. If history repeats itself, a possible surrender is imminent as the price heads towards $ 19,000 .
Source: trade view
As BTC moves down, the cops must prepare to defend the $ 39,000-37,300 retaining wall at all costs. This important area of demand could be one of the last few opportunities for BTC to continue its upward trend for a while.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.