Glassnode’s latest weekly on-chain report shows that the number of long-term Bitcoin holders is at a multi-year high and the market is yet to see large profit-taking.
follow report 22 of research company Glassnode, long-term (LTH) owners appear to be cutting their spending while continuing to build positions.
The analysis looks at the Volume Age Range Spent (SVAB) indicator, which is used to determine the age of coins that dominate on-chain flow on a given day. This metric can be used to determine when a profit taking or accumulation process should be started.
Coins held for more than 1 month will be issued continuously from November 2020 to April to May 2021. The SVAB index is now down 2.5% in daily volume since the BTC price rose to an all-time high in October.
“This could reasonably be interpreted to mean that LTH is reducing expenses and therefore accumulating more than leaving them.”
Age range of the issued volume of Bitcoin | Source: Glassnode
Glassnode also points out that the total supply of short-term holders (STH) is at a multi-year low (below 3 million BTC). This means that the LTH stocks are at their highest level for years.
“The fact that the supply of STH is so low while the price is close to ATH is a relatively strange case.”
Even though STH has taken profits at “historic” highs and even declined at the lows of last week, the market is not yet “saturated with profit-taking”.
The results suggest that there is little evidence of mass surrender and that the bulls will continue to take control before this cycle ends.
On October 12, LTH held 13.3 million BTC (then valued at $ 754 billion) and had not seen any outflows in over 5 months.
On November 22nd, the Chinese journalist Colin Wu tweets in response to reports that the number of addresses with non-zero balances has also hit an all-time high. This shows that despite the 18 percent drop in price from its mid-October high of $ 69,000, BTC is still picking up and accumulating.
Number of addresses with balances not equal to 0 | Source: Colin Wu
Possible scenario for Bitcoin
The strategist Michaël van de Poppe looks at two possible scenarios for Bitcoin as the leading cryptocurrency continues to trade below USD 60,000.
In a new strategy meeting, Van de Poppe sees Bitcoin reclaiming USD 60,000 as support or forming a double floor structure at USD 55,000 before it can trigger an uptrend.
“At this point I can only conclude that BTC is making lower highs and lower lows and is retesting previous levels … BTC is towards support ($ 55,000), bounced back and is now at resistance.
If resistance becomes support, the price could continue to rise. If rejected, retesting around the $ 55,000 low is more likely for a bullish divergence that has not yet formed. And when a bullish divergence occurs, it is a sign that the market will reverse from there. “
The source: Michael van de Poppe
Van de Poppe watched the smart contract platform ETH and noticed that ETH looks more bullish than Bitcoin after flipping a key area of resistance into support.
“The main resistance level for ETH is around $ 4,500. That is one of the levels that need to be broken. If the price breaks through I think that ETH will move on towards a new ATH. Overall, ETH is showing more strength and if you look at the weekly timeframe, the nice retest that is taking place here ($ 4,000) could push the market higher. “
Source: Michael van de Poppe
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