Just like the previous times after the Fed announced the interest rate increase, the whole market was down with BTC dump and altcoins panic sell. So this drop is due to the influence of the Fed or the FED is just the reason for this dump. Let’s go with Coincu to analysis on BTC this week.
Bitcoin: Exchange Reserve – All Exchanges
The lowest BTC supply on exchanges ever recorded on on-chain. Even with previous dump, the supply is still higher than it is now. These indicate that end-of-cycle accumulation is occurring and a new cycle is about to be formed.
BTC: Exchange Netflow (Total) – All Exchanges
The price reduction plus a large amount of BTC was put on the exchange, however then BTC will be purchased and withdrawn from the exchange. Mainly coming from large fund to buy back, but compared to the selling force is insignificant. The amount of people scared to sell has increased a lot compared to the previous time so we will continue to see BTC being put on the exchange in the coming days.
Bitcoin: Long Term Holder SOPR
Long-term holders also lost patience and sold their BTC. Some time ago, even if the market down, the long holders still did not move, but now they have started to panic sell. There will be fluctuations so that even the diamond hand will have to sell off and then a new cycle will begin.
The weekly candle closed as a full volume-selling with strong selling pressure on the whole market and confirmed a breakout triangle pattern. Besides price closed below EMA 34,89 for a downtrend on the weekly frame. Both the MACD and the RSI are showing negative signs in the time frame. With the current strong selling force, it is very likely that the price will find the support zone: $29,000-$32,000. Here will be the accumulation zone of the bulls, if the bears want to prevail, they will need a big volume of selling.
As planned when BTC was at $45,000, there would be a down that would shake off all profitable positions and start a new cycle. Now looking at bitcoin we could be waiting for a new bottom to fill the portfolio one last time before BTC bullish.
BTC is put on the exchange and the exchange reserve has increased. This means that there is selling pressure even though the price is falling, its mean the price will continue to down in the coming days. Currently, in our opinion, there are 2 points that will have the price reaction of BTC that is the $32,000 and the $30,000. These two zones will have the price reaction of BTC. So next week, there will still be a selling force, but at the same time, there will be buying force. When the price is lower, the buying force will be bigger.
Also, before BTC wants to bump, the market needs to kill as many long-shorts as possible, the market will grow when no one expects it, that is when everyone believes that the market is downtrend the number of short increases, then the market will grow. The market will recover. And of course, now is not the best time.
If you have any questions, comments, suggestions, or ideas about the project, please email [email protected].
DISCLAIMER: The Information on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.