Despite the relatively positive technical structure in the short timeframe and bullish sentiment in the futures market, macro factors are still keeping BTC volatile.

Technical Analysis

Long term

Bitcoin is still consolidating above the $40,000 level.

Last week, it was rejected by the $46,000 zone, which led to a retracement towards the 50-day SMA and a breakdown thereafter.

Currently, the critical support zone is $39,000-$40,000. A bounce from this zone can help the price regain the 50-SMA and retest the $46,000 resistance area.

Bitcoin /USDT daily chart | Source: TradingView

In the short term

On the 4-hour time frame, the price is currently testing the support line of the 3rd descending parallel channel. If this line holds, a rally towards the $45,000 region can be expected. However, if the price breaks below that, a drop to $38,000 or even lower would be the most likely scenario. Additionally, the RSI is entering the oversold territory, suggesting that a local bottom or consolidation may be near.

Bitcoin /USDT 4 hour chart | Source: TradingView

Psychological analysis in the futures market

The funding rate has turned positive in the last few days after being in negative territory for a while. This optimism seems illogical as a possible war between Russia and Ukraine looms and rumors of the Fed raising interest rates to 50 basis points instead of 25 are circulating.

Additionally, the bears liquidating at the $33,000 rally low have also closed a significant portion of their positions, which has helped the funding rate move into positive territory.

However, comparing the current market situation to June 2021, there could be another drop in the near term to liquidate impatient bulls and superfluous speculators.

Source: CryptoQuant

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Investors should research carefully before making a decision. We are not responsible for your investment decisions

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