Bitcoin held on to the mid-$43,000 region on Feb. 16 amid optimism that the price will avoid another macro bottom.
BTC 4 hour candlestick chart | Source: TradingView
OBV triggers recovery comparisons for 2021
In a tight range, the pair seems increasingly poised to either break out to the upside or down as the support and resistance levels are very close to the spot price.
While there are still fears that the stock correction could bring bears fresh pain, one analyst argues that there is now little incentive to sell BTC after three months of price decline.
“When I look at everything the BTC HODLer has endured in 2021, when I look at the global risk mitigation over 3 months ago and held 48% of the real cap as recently as 3-12 months ago after the price hit panic-inducing levels down from $33,000, I’m wondering, surprises aside, with all the existing FUD already priced in, who else is selling here?” TXMC argue.
The attached chart shows that coins that last moved 3 to 6 months ago (when prices shot to all-time highs of $69,000) are growing in proportion to total BTC supply.
Bitcoin Real Cap HODL Wave Chart | Source: TXMC
The Balance of Volume (OBV), an indicator used to estimate buying and selling pressure, has also rallied in a way that popular educational resource IncomeSharks’ claims are similar to last year’s recovery from last year’s $30,000 rally.
$BTC – Daily OBV chart. And people tell me we haven’t bottomed yet… That’s almost a more bullish move than the last time we went from $30k to $60k. Double bottom, very sharp bullish V spike. Price action is just noise and people listen too much #CryptoTwitter. pic.twitter.com/vURzxYeImG
— Income Sharks (@Income Sharks) February 15, 2022
“Daily OBV chart. People tell me BTC hasn’t bottomed yet… That’s more of a bullish move than the last time it went from $30,000 to $60,000. Double bottom, sharp V-shaped tip. Price action is just noise and people hear too much about CryptoTwitter.”
Surname say more in another tweet on the same day:
“These are the conditions retailers are waiting to buy bitcoin after it has hit an all-time high and hit the news.
Meanwhile, whales and smart buyers who bought nearly $35,000 will triple their money if BTC hits $100,000.”
Quantitative analyst PlanB still believes BTC will inevitably surge to $100,000 or more, and he sees it by the end of 2023, according to both stock-to-flow modeling and logarithmic regression. This is despite the recent S2F outages and the analyst’s “worst case scenario”.
Both S2F and logarithmic regression point to $100,000 in 2023. pic.twitter.com/NHqoRpEmUl
— PlanB (@100 trillion USD) February 14, 2022
“Both S2F and logarithmic regression indicate this $100,000 in 2023″.
PlanB then explained that he compared Bitcoin to other assets such as gold (which has a stock-to-flow ratio of about 60 with a market cap of $10 trillion) and real estate. The real estate S2F ratio is 100, with a market cap 10 times larger than gold.
Hence, he concluded: “I would be really surprised if Bitcoin will have a lower market value than gold after the next halving at BTC S2F 100+.”
The next halving is expected to take place in early 2024.
Despite recovering from last month’s lows, mainstream sources with Google Trends data don’t seem to care about bitcoin shows lack of user curiosity.
Google search data for “bitcoin” | Source: Google Trends
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