Bitcoin (BTC) price broke below a longstanding wave of support that was instrumental in keeping its strong uptrend intact after the crypto market crash in March 2020.
The wave is known as the 50-week simple moving average, or 50-week SMA, and represents the average price traders have paid for Bitcoin over the past 50 weeks. Over the years and through 2020, its no longer valid floor price has helped drive the Bitcoin market into a tough bear cycle.
For example, the 50-week SMA acted as support during the 2018 bear market. The wave prevented Bitcoin from seeing deeper downtrends – from February 2018 to May 2018 – as its price corrected from its then record high of $ 20,000.
Similarly, the wave provided Bitcoin with incredible support during its correction from the highs of $ 15,000 in 2019. In addition, it held the ground until March 2020 when the Covid-19 outbreak caused a global market crash.
Fractal target $ 12- $ 13K
Nicknamed the Bitcoin Master, the performer is concerned about the possibility that Bitcoin could suffer an average price decline of 80% if it trended down above its 50-day SMA. The analyst noted that if the fractal mentioned above occurs, the BTC / USD rate could plunge as low as $ 13,000.
#Bitcoin If you just mark the 50-week simple moving average, you’ll see if this coin breaks the tradition of gaining at least 50% ($ 47,000) above it before making the usual 80% ($ 13,000) drop in ATH or Not.
– Bitcoin master (@ drei4u) July 14, 2021
#bitcoin down after the weekly candle opened below the structure I’ve been following for several weeks.
I predict a rally between $ 24,000 and $ 29,000, largely due to the CME gap at $ 24,615.
Then my prediction at the bottom of the bear market would be $ 12,000 give or take $ 2,000 each. pic.twitter.com/aMi2M45bmf
– Keith Wareing (@offiziellkeith) July 19, 2021
Meanwhile, Mike McGlone, chief commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, highlighted the 50-week SMA in a previously published tweet in Julyalthough it is reminiscent of the wave’s ability to contain selling pressures. The analyst recommends investors not to sell their Bitcoin holdings immediately if there is an initial drop below the wave.
“Selling bitcoin with an initial decline below its 50-week moving average in the past has proven to be a great way to lose money, even in bear markets,” explains McGlone.
Bitcoin market analysts are mixed
The recent decline in Bitcoin price follows a global decline in risk market fueled by concerns that the highly transferable Delta variant of Covid-19 will slow the recovery caused by the reopening of the economy.
Vijay Ayyar, head of business development at the Luno crypto exchange, noted that Bitcoin could fall even further. In his comment to Bloomberg, the former Google executive said the BTC / USD exchange rate could plunge as low as $ 20,000. However, he predicts the pair will retest $ 40,000 on the next impact.
Ayyar commented, “We need to build another base before we can continue another uptrend.
“We’ll be somewhere between $ 20,000 and $ 40,000 for the rest of the year.”
Jehan Chu, founder of crypto-focused venture capital and trading firm Kenetic Capital, has set a safe declining target near $ 25,000 but warns of an accelerated sell-off if the bulls fail to recover from that level. He says:
“The momentum of the cryptocurrency market has stalled in the first quarter and threatens another likely reversal below $ 25,000.”
Strong fundamentals and bullish signals remain
However, another analyst offered a different and more optimistic view of the current Bitcoin position.
James Wo, founder and CEO of the global crypto investment firm Digital Finance Group, highlighted on-chain metrics, including the continued decline in foreign exchange capital inflows and wallet addresses, as reasons to remain bullish on Bitcoin.
Wo told Cointelegraph, “Given these online indicators, we can say that the majority of investors are waiting for important signals to get back into the market.
Related: Bitcoin Bullish Outlines 7 Steps To More Financial Stimulation And A Higher BTC Price
Data from CryptoQuant, a South Korea-based blockchain analytics firm, also provides a bullish setup for Bitcoin, citing the cryptocurrency’s MVRV.
Specifically, the MVRV represents the ratio of the market capitalization of an asset divided by the realized capitalization. If the results are too high, traders can interpret the Bitcoin price as overvalued, which indicates selling pressure. On the other hand, if the MVRV value is too low, traders may consider the Bitcoin price to be undervalued, which indicates buying pressure.
“To buy [Bitcoin] at a similar level in the previous cycle was seen from January to March 2017, “noted one of the CryptoQuant analysts, adding:
“It doesn’t sell the soil, it prepares balls for the soil. Short-term data provide probabilities for testing at the support, good exposure. “