Bitcoin’s New Year’s Eve is a highly anticipated event that often surprises the market. This time, however, the top asset didn’t make much of a move. The short-term downtrend is still in full swing and hopes for an explosive target in 2022 have evaporated. With Bitcoin still trading at $ 47,123 and making its first green candle on Jan 2nd, this is what to expect from the crypto king.
Where are we now?
Bitcoin hovered between $ 46,000 and $ 52,000 for most of the last month. The price is now over 30% off ATH $ 69,000. Even though options totaled 6.1 billion, according to IntoTheBlock, 42 bulls and 42 bears have surfaced in the past 7 days.
In particular, BTC’s trend in 2022 will remain bearish in the short term and bullish in the long term. However, this has been one of the quietest starts to the year for the top coin as the bullish narrative subsides.
After getting stuck at $ 47,000, a sudden surge in price pushed it past $ 48,500 on December 31st. But the price soon fell, dropping to $ 46,208 on the first day of 2022. Price action still seems to be volatile, but social volume and positive sentiment could correct the uptrend.
Social mass (blue) and weighted psychology (pink) | Source: Sanbase
BTC-weighted social sentiment is at an all-time low at press time. In the past, the same trend has often driven the price of the top coin.
In 2021, retail continues to increase coin stacking throughout the year. Meanwhile, institutions and whales buy down from August to September, then sell when prices fall from November to December, and now appear to be heading for the buying zone in January 2022.
Bitcoin flow | Source: Willy Woo
In the one month timeframe, Bitcoin doesn’t look too good as a bearish double top appears on the chart along with a bearish RSI divergence. Meanwhile, the larger market structure is still bullish. As long as Bitcoin holds above $ 35,000, we can expect further highs with the RSI providing a hidden bullish signal.
In terms of price, a neutral bullish bias is signaled by both the 30-day and 7-day moving average (MA), while the 100-week MA is synchronizing with the downward movement. The net outflows from the exchanges will hover around the 5,000 BTC mark in 2021. Last week the net outflows from the exchanges turned into net inflows.
This indicator rose from December 22nd to December 28th. In addition, huge soil inflows were found. This is a negative sign in the short term as the price has dropped 12%. At the time of writing, the numbers are showing negative money, suggesting short-term accumulation amid volatile prices.
In the short term, it is important to monitor net flow to see if the trend is weakening or strengthening. In addition, over 20,000 options that expire on January 7 could further determine the future development of the asset.
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