Bitcoin is struggling to gain momentum as historically low spot market volumes and a strong dollar cause most traders to hesitate.

If there is one word to describe the sentiment of the majority of crypto ecosystem participants regarding the near-term outlook for Bitcoin, it is “hesitation”, as a series of mixed signals from all indicators before major movement in either direction plan their next entry point.

A new report from Delphi Digital examined the current price movement of Bitcoin at the macro level and found that several factors, including a low spot volume and a stronger US dollar, have hit hard.

Bitcoin price chart | Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s recent drop to $ 31,000 adds to the fear currently pervading the crypto market, and analysts are now warning that a failure to close a deal above $ 31,000 could bring it down to the $ 24,000-29,000 region.

Here are three key aspects that Delphi Digital highlighted as having the greatest impact on Bitcoin’s short-term price action.

Spot volume and open interest collapse

According to Delphi Digital, the decline in trading activity is one of the biggest factors affecting the market. It comes after the May 19 sell-off that saw cash and derivatives traders drifting off the exchanges.

Trading volume in the spot market | Source: Delphi Digital

As can be seen in the graph above, after a significant increase in the first half of 2021, trading volume in the spot market has decreased by more than 60% as the price crash and traders stopped using leverage.

The rapid drop in prices also helps prevent high leverage by private traders in the derivatives markets, which can be seen in the Bitcoin Futures Open Interest (OI) levels, which have been falling again since the beginning of 2021.

Delphi Digital says:

“This cleanup has had a negative impact on the bull market structure, with futures bases close to 0% and falling funding rates for perpetual contracts.”

On a positive note, the massive liquidation event in May helped weed out over-indebted traders, meaning “the most likely participants are the owners of the market”.

US dollar strengthens

Another factor affecting the price of Bitcoin is the recent strength of the US dollar, which has been on the uptrend from its low of 89.53 on May 25th.

US Dollar Index (DXY) 1-day chart | Source: TradingView

As can be seen in the graph above, an inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed on the US dollar index chart (DXY) with a section that is currently in the third test.

If the US dollar index moves up, the current economic recovery could be threatened as financial conditions tighten and weigh on many of the most popular trades of 2021.

“Commodities, gold, emerging market stocks, Bitcoin are all susceptible to a stronger US dollar, although the speed at which it moves is still an important factor,” said Delphi Digital.

Bitcoin price drops on long-term support

While the 51% drop in Bitcoin prices worries many analysts that another lengthy bear market may begin, it is important to consider some of the bigger macro trends leading into current conditions.

Bitcoin monthly earnings | Source: Delphi Digital

The graph above shows that Bitcoin has been bullish for six months in a row and if it goes up a retracement will of course follow.

Even though Bitcoin has fallen 51% on an annualized basis from its all-time high (ATH) near $ 65,000, its price is still 250% above its valuation of $ 9,100 on July 16, 2020.

Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend remains intact, with the price currently testing the 12-month moving average, an important level of support that will determine where the price will go from here.

Bitcoin vs. 1-month chart with a moving average over 12 months | Source: Delphi Digital

The declining volume of Bitcoin trading on the spot and futures exchanges and the prospect of a stronger dollar are weighing on global financial markets. This has resulted in indecision being the main emotion dominating the cryptocurrency market right now, and that sentiment is likely to continue until a major price move or driving event drives the cryptocurrency market forward.

Mr. Teacher

According to Cointelegraph

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