Analyst PlanB admits that Bitcoin (BTC) will “probably” miss the forecasted end of the month in November.
In an update on Twitter from November 25th, the creator of the “worst case” price forecast at the end of the month was ready for the first time to admit defeat.
“Probably” is missing for the first time in the Bitcoin floor model
With a short position of around $ 40,000, Bitcoin is currently well below its minimum month-end close in November.
Now PlanB admits that it is unlikely that BTC / USD will reach USD 98,000 in the next five days.
“Closing the $ 98,000 floor pattern in November will likely be the first failure (after late August, September, October),” he said as part of Twitter comments.
$ 98K Floor Pattern Closing November will likely be the first failure (after late August, September, October). The S2F model is unaffected and is actually on its way towards $ 100,000. pic.twitter.com/QO3bRUoGo3
– PlanB (@ 100 trillion USD) November 25, 2021
During an appearance on a podcast series by Saifedean Ammous, author of “The Bitcoin Standard” and “Fiat Standard”, on November 11th, PlanB explained its previous beliefs about the exchange model.
“If we don’t hit $ 98,000 by the end of November, it will be a first for this particular metric in all of Bitcoin’s history,” he said.
The sequence correctly predicts, almost like letters (or numbers), monthly closing prices of $ 47,000, $ 43,000, and $ 63,000, respectively, for August, September, and October.
Thanks for the 200% annual increase
Despite breaking with tradition, a drop in the reserve price won’t affect PlanB’s range of nominal stock movement patterns, he noted after much confusion about the link between the two.
Inventory-to-Flow (S2F) currently claims an average BTC / USD price of $ 100,000 during this halving cycle, citing the fourth quarter of 2021 as the correct timeframe for the level to first appear.
Its sister model, the stock-to-flow cross (S2Fx) goes even further averaging $ 288,000, but this has also been criticized in recent weeks as BTC underperforms.
In an interview with Ammus, PlanB said that anyway distance between the spot price and the S2F model price does not yet threaten to invalidate.
The pattern uses standard deviation bands to track progress and this month BTC / USD remains in an acceptable range.
Meanwhile, as Cointelegraph reported, a number of other indicators remain bullish in the future, with the current price phase seen as a consolidation rather than the prelude to a deeper plunge.
BTC / USD starts at $ 29,000 in 2021, while Hodlers are up more than 210% compared to last year’s Thanksgiving Day.