Bitcoin (BTC) started the new week with a rare disappointment in its fourth quarter rally – without breaking previous support.
After a promising weekend, BTC / USD was finally declined twice at $ 60,000 and from there to below $ 57,000 as market momentum subsided.
Much is at stake: some believe the high Bitcoin price target will still be attainable by the end of the month, while others believe this bull market will last longer than it did before.
With November seemingly more of a break with tradition and subdivision – compared to both recent months and old bull market years – traders and analysts are preparing for a stressful but potentially exciting monthly load.
Cointelegraph examines five factors that could influence BTC price action in the final week of a single stressful “moonvember”.
$ 60,000 becomes a resistance
For much of the weekend, the analyst sentiment was simple: “It could get worse.”
After BTC / USD hit a five-week low of $ 55,650, BTC / USD managed to offset some of its losses and even “jumped higher” on Saturday to climb to $ 60,000.
This ultimately failed, but there was a follow-up attempt on Sunday where Bitcoin enjoyed a few minutes in the $ 60,000 range before being rejected by the company, crashing the market again.
At the time of writing on Monday, $ 57,000 is in focus, with the dynamic being clear that what was once solid support has turned into resistance.
Celebrity trader Pentoshi summed up sentiment and reiterated his desire to win back $ 61,000 to support a bullish continuation.
$ BTC Why is 61k important?
Bc support bc is resistance. Therefore, I will concentrate on this area for the time being.
Here’s another way to look at it.
What I want? I want more than 61k. Is the market interested in what we want?
$ 61,000 for the return of the bull pic.twitter.com/egMRfuLxfV
– Pentoshi won’t bother you. hate DMs. DM is a scam (@ Pentosh1) November 22, 2021
November 2021 has brought sellers negative returns of -6.5% so far, making it one of three such Novembers in Bitcoin history to not make a profit.
As Cointelegraph reported, there have been variable price movements in at least 2020, when BTC / USD surged nearly 43% in November.
However, Sunday’s downturn did manage to close the most recent CME futures gap that emerged on Friday, again becoming a feature of the month’s spot price movement.
For analysts and Crypto Ed traders, this is a must-have to increase the chances of a bullish comeback in the new week.
grandfather speak in part of the comments on Twitter on Sunday.
For all the frustration over a Bitcoin fix, even if it’s the least welcome, not everyone is surprised – or concerned.
Short timeframes can paint a very different picture of market health than longer ones, and that’s what commentators are watching to prop up a long-term bullish thesis this week.
“If in doubt, shrink” – compared to its performance two years ago after the block funding was halved, Bitcoin is still on track.
“Remarkably similar correction structures so far on BTC 8H,” analyst TechDev Confirmed Sunday.
“The date is almost four years apart. Since July 2021 is still 5-8 days behind 2017. “
TechDev has consulted data showing that this year, Bitcoin not only replicates its 2017 performance, but also practically replicates the timeframe for each phase of the bull market.
If this continues, the forecast peak time will appear too – except this time on the order of more than $ 20,000 from 2017.
Specifically, a chart better showing Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) replicates its November 2017 performance.
Typically, a bull top is accompanied by an RSI of 90 or higher, which is far from current levels in the lower time frames.
Cost increased $ 60,000 in rematch
Although the battle for $ 60,000 was lost, attempting to break out of the lower levels had undesirable effects on the derivatives markets, where traders are again increasing leverage.
After effectively “rolling back” to neutral during last week’s lows, funding rates are trending up again.
Being too positive, as was the case with Bybit, OKEx and others at the time of this writing, suggests a bullish bias – expect more gains.
This can often produce undesirable results as the fall in prices begins to clear a large number of positions, a snowball effect that causes prices to fall even further.
So far, however, liquidations have remained muted – $ 70 million for Bitcoin and $ 219 million in the crypto markets in the past 24 hours.
The market is hungry for liquidity, and buying and selling volumes are falling.
(corresponds to most market participants until confirmed or hedged)
Decreased liquidity so the question is, which side of the market will be running this week. https://t.co/tpnOsyGErZ pic.twitter.com/Hk4RIFGIiM
– (@ 52kskew) November 22, 2021
Meanwhile, open interest in Bitcoin futures has yet to beat all-time highs prior to the November 10th decline.
Dollar is the star of the show
In macro markets, concerns about coronavirus measures – and protests in response – remain mixed.
With inflation firmly underway, the discussion now revolves around the Fed increasing the pace of its bond purchases and slowing down next month.
Jason Schenker, president and chief economist of forecasting firm Prestige Economics, said: “If this idea comes up and is repeatedly emphasized, it increases the likelihood that the throttling announced in December will happen faster than it was announced in early November,” said Bloomberg.
However, the US dollar is stealing the limelight this week.
The greenback broke long-standing resistance this month and hit its strongest level since July 2020 according to the US dollar currency index (DXY).
Typically, a pronounced DXY return has the opposite effect for Bitcoin, which struggles during such times. November was no exception as DXY traded for a peak and hit a value of 96.
Analyst Helene Meisler “The problem? The mood in the foreign exchange country is extreme ” warning Weekend.
A shift to the opposite unusually volatile DXY would represent a test for negative correlation with BTC.
Emotions say “wait and see”
When it comes to market sentiment, investors are on the fence about crypto.
Related: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies You Should See This Week: BTC, AVAX, MATIC, EGLD, MANA
The latest reading from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows that the market is actually completely neutral despite the short-term price behavior.
Fear & Greed is 50/100 exactly in the middle of its possible range of values, which underlines the lack of “extreme” mood.
This could work in Bitcoin’s favor as last week’s shocks have pushed sentiment back into the “fear” area from which it has recovered.
In contrast to the Fear & Greed Index of the traditional markets and the clear dichotomy: “extreme greed” marks the point after the previous and current closing price, “greed” remains.