Less than 2 weeks ago, the global crypto market passed the $ 3 trillion mark in capitalization. However, this cannot be sustained for long due to the recent turbulence. At the time of writing, the market currently has a capitalization of $ 2.73 trillion.

The above-mentioned downtrend is led by large-cap cryptocurrencies. In the past 7 days, all of the top 10 coins have dropped 6-10% and ETH is no exception.

ETH price 4-hour chart | Source: Tradingview

Financial astrology

With the market currently in a period of indecision, an in-depth analysis of the metrics is required to gauge the future of ETH.

Financial astrology is understood as mathematical psychology based on astronomical science. In short, it measures overall market sentiment. There is no better celestial body than the moon to help us do this.

Assets often tend to perform well during one lunar cycle and are more prone to decline in another. The lunar cycles are determined to a reasonable, but not always accurate, degree.

TradingView’s moon phase indicator shows the moon phases on a chart. The dark circle is usually the full moon while the light circle represents the new moon. The lines between full moon and new moon have their respective colors – rounded (growing) or waning (decreasing).

ETH / USDT | Source: TradingView

A closer look at the chart can reveal an interesting pattern. Two weeks after every bright circle that appears on the chart, there is usually a bear waning. At the same time, the price has mostly risen when ETH enters the yellow spots.

Given what happened earlier on the chart, traders can expect an upward move soon. November 19th is the day of the full moon and the ETH price is expected to enter a “bullish” phase. In fact, at the time of writing, the candle is in the green and ETH is trading very close to the day’s high.

Before one can breathe a sigh of relief, however, it is equally important to consider other trends, especially those of market participants.

Measure the dealer sentiment

The ETH options market expires in November 132.4k ETH. According to the chart, the buy (call) contract has the upper hand, but the put (put) contract is not much inferior.

Expiry of the open contract for Ethereum options | The source: Crookedness

Shorts dominate the lower range up to $ 4,400 and longs dominate the upper range. So if the ETH price continues to hover around the $ 4,000 region on the expiration date, the bearish sentiment will be even stronger.

However, when the largest altcoin breaks above $ 4,400, the call holders will be activated to take advantage of their ETH call options. Indeed, this could help reverse the lingering bearish narrative.

ETH options generate interest | The source: Crookedness

Given the pessimism prevailing in the market, it will be interesting to see if the strength of the moon can help ETH hit $ 4,500 in the coming days.

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