Bitcoin is only 13 years old and has gone through the brutal bear markets that seemed to bring it back to the beginning. For example, the crash was up to 92% in 2011 and around 84% in 2015. But now that could be a thing of the past.
“It is past”
Dan Morehead, CEO of the crypto investment firm Pantera Capital, recently published a new edition of the Blockchain Letter. According to this section, brutal Bitcoin bear markets, where BTC has plummeted more than 80%, are “a thing of the past” and future bear markets will not be as deep.
In addition, Bitcoin has entered the post-halving phase.
“I think we’ve completed the 4-year halving cycle and moved into the next pricing phase,” said Morehead.
The source: Capital of Pantera
According to the graph, the 4-year halving cycles show:
– The price has rallied well in the 477 days before the halving – 2.7x.
– And then a bigger rally in the 410 days after the halving – 7.2x.
Bitcoin price cycle
“We’ve updated the charts we’ve been using since 2014 – they show big bull and bear markets. I feel like BTC completed its halving in April, after which it had a temporarily insane time – when the Chinese mining ban was classified as negative and some people flipped the blockchain class by ESG standards. Now we are in a new bull market. “
He also said the range of price fluctuations will become more moderate as the market becomes more popular, as it increases in value, and as more institutions participate.
The following statistics back up Morehead’s argument and make it clear that the downward moves have become less and less extreme over the years.
Source: Pantera Capital
Indeed, the new price era will bring much flatter declines, which in turn will be less volatile.
“Although BTC had two 83% bear markets, I believe that is in the distant past. Future bear markets will be flatter. The two previous times fell by -61% and -54%. “
As can be seen from the attached image below, BTC has actually had a wild ride since its inception. A journey full of unforgettable ups and downs. However, this will no longer happen, according to Morehead.
Source: Pantera Capital
On the other hand, the CEO also mentioned that there will be big bull runs too.
“Unfortunately there is no free lunch. The downside is that we probably won’t see 100 rallies in a year. “
However, he remains intrepid with his bullish Bitcoin narrative. No wonder he came to the conclusion:
“There is an astonishing agreement between the numbers (-82%, -83%, -84%). If it reaches -83% again, I’ll be bullish. “
Additionally, many people have shared different views on the bullish momentum for the top crypto.
What does Q4 have for Bitcoin?
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone says Bitcoin could “climb” in the fourth quarter thanks to a number of fundamental catalysts.
The analyst stressed that many investors worried about debt and inflation may be willing to put their trust in the technology that is giving Bitcoin a limited supply.
“In terms of soaring US debt and potential default stress, Bitcoin could enter an unprecedented bull phase in the fourth quarter as the market believes in the programming of the Bitcoin electronic money supply cap. The history of the debt ceiling will rethink regulators who avoid allocating capital to Bitcoin. “
The source: Mike McGlone / Twitter
In Bloomberg’s latest Crypto Outlook, McGlone said that BTC appears to be in the middle of a bear market. He cites Bitcoin’s 260-day volatility versus the S&P 500 as evidence that the leading cryptocurrency will see more gains before entering a new bear phase.
“Bitcoin looks like a dormant and bearish bull market. The October 4 price was around $ 49,000, just below the 10-year regression line and not above the 2021 average ($ 44,500). Bitcoin rebounded in April before being corrected on concerns about energy usage and the Chinese ban, demonstrating the uniqueness and power of the world’s largest decentralized network.
Our picture shows the main fundamental support – the 260-day volatility will drop to an all-time low in 2020 against most major asset classes, particularly the S&P 500. “
The source: Bloomberg
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