Bitcoin (BTC) is in tip top shape – almost literally – at the start of a new week, 15% below its all-time high.
A classic cocktail of elements laid the foundation for the final Q4 results, which analysts are now confidently comparing to the 2013 and 2017 bulls.
Separated from macro market movements and the US dollar, Bitcoin once again looks like the gold alternative that investors want – while altcoins are disappearing.
With “Uptober” in its second full week, Cointelegraph will be taking a look at what might be in store for the BTC price action in the coming days.
Altcoins are lagging behind the “Bitcoin season”
Things look better as the new week begins for Bitcoin traders – last week’s four-month high is back and has been beaten.
With the exception of a curious anomaly on the Bitstamp exchange, which saw a temporary decline to $ 51,000, a quiet weekend preserved previous gains.
Now, the BTC price action appears to be preparing to attack the ultimate resistance below the all-time high of $ 64,500 and is pleasing market participants.
– Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 11, 2021
However, there is another dimension behind Bitcoin’s strength – one that could sustain further upward momentum in the short term.
Altcoins underperform, which leads to predictions of a “Bitcoin season” before a form of the “old season” emerges later. As Cointelegraph reported, this could be by 2022.
Every 1% = about 10% decrease from the BTC rate
The last week has been volatile if it did not result in high old exposure
Remember, long alts are equivalent to a short btc vol https://t.co/hWQulj6Qo7 pic.twitter.com/nv11k4IUHZ
– Pentoshi won’t condemn you. hate DMs. DM is a scam (@ Pentosh1) October 10, 2021
The situation is particularly clear with Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market capitalization, which is currently at its lowest level compared to BTC since the beginning of August.
“ETH / BTC breaks while Bitcoin consolidates”, Cointelegraph employee Michaël van de Poppe summary late sunday.
“I think bitcoin is still working, while altcoins are not at stake yet.”
Van de Poppe anyway Add The controversial cyclical high for ETH / USD climbs to $ 20,000, with a timeframe of Q1 next year.
“You are here”
It takes a lot to please Bitcoiners when it comes to the BTC price action.
As any longtime crypto twitterer will know, even the most unexpected moves in BTC / USD can only satisfy sentiment for a long time before investors demand it.
Last week was no exception – Bitcoin surged $ 3,000 in minutes, $ 5,000 in an hour, and hit a 4-month high, but in the days that followed, commentators complained that it was “boring”.
The weight of the expectations for Bitcoin can be seen in 2021, the year after the third halving and thus the date for the price peak of the halving.
How far the BTC price can go is a heated debate, and while some have suggested that $ 200,000 or even $ 300,000 is “programmed”, others have lost confidence, arguing that the cycle cannot be the same as the two previous.
However, comparing the years after the halving appears to offer a near-unanimous verdict on Bitcoin’s chances – the main surge to the peak has yet to begin.
The fall below $ 40,000 in September is repeated in 2013 and 2017, for example. These events occurred just before kick-off and acted as the “ultimate” bear trap.
– TechDev (@ TechDev_52) October 9, 2021
Stacking the price trend of 2021 on the performance of 2017 also generates eerie similarities.
All of these results from the popular TechDev trading account suggest that this year’s high is an order of magnitude larger than the low. Technically or not, the analyst argues, the six-digit high is logically justified.
In the meantime, the similarities are nothing new as various sources show how constant the price is over the years after the previous halving in 2021.
One day $ 31 billion will be billed
Much attention was paid to the network fundamentals of Bitcoin during the 2020-2021 bull run, but much more is to come.
With hash rates and difficulties almost recovering and close to all-time highs, new data suggests that other aspects of Bitcoin are setting records of their own.
This week is all about network capacity and scalability – all in the chain before the Lightning Network is even included.
As Note by analyst Kevin Rooke, Bitcoin was worth over $ 30 billion one day last week.
“$ 31 billion. That’s the value that was billed on the Bitcoin blockchain in a single day this week, ”he commented.
“It’s a new all-time high for Bitcoin, and the value of payments has increased 40-fold since 2020.”
The impressive conversion comes with constancy of costs – Bitcoin transaction fees remain low.
Question about GBTC
The countdown to a decision on a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is still exciting this week – but is an approval “priced in”?
While the US regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has postponed the deadline for deciding the fate of spot Bitcoin ETFs to November, this month there will be a “yes” or “no” for futures Give supported ETF products.
The latter has drawn praise and criticism alike, while the fate of existing institutional bitcoin tools, particularly the market heavyweight Grayscale Bitcoin.Trust (GBTC), has also been questioned.
Amid the rapidly rising Bitcoin price, GBTC continues to trade at a significant discount, and that trend has only deepened in recent weeks.
As ETFs keep growing, more and more capital will pour into them, analysts say, before Grayscale converts its own funds into ETFs.
For macro analyst Lyn Alden, the chances that the so-called “gray scale premium” will even return to neutral territory are slim.
“I doubt it, but it’s not impossible if there is a big bitcoin rally and no ETF at this point,” she said. answered to the question in a social media discussion over the weekend.
Bitcoin’s performance outperformed the base case I wrote about in 2020, in part because GBTC’s neutral arbitrage created temporary additional demand.
It’s now back on a more sustainable path imo, fueled by the accumulation of HODLers. Looks good, let’s see. https://t.co/RlPWBZYtNE pic.twitter.com/B99jQ1eIAt
– Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) October 9, 2021
Alden updated her research from last year highlighting GBTC’s role in Bitcoin’s price movement. She said that the relative lack of this phenomenon, in turn, has positive implications for the sustainability of BTC price developments.
For those concerned that a return to 4 month highs has been accompanied by market instability, reconsider.
Related: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies You Should See This Week: BTC, DOT, UNI, LINK, XMR
According to the sentiment meter on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, BTC’s recent gains came from continued growth.
This is contrary to the norm – moves to highs and especially near all-time highs tend to indicate that the index has reached “extreme greed”. This again shows an unsustainable, volatile market that triggers a price correction.
So far, Fear & Greed measures just under 57,000 US dollars, but measures only 71/100 – “greedy”, not “extreme greed” and is still far from the classic highs of 95/100 and higher.
However, October saw major shifts in sentiment. For example, on September 30, just two weeks ago, the index measured 20/100 – “extreme fear”.