The rapid bull run let Bitcoin gain 25% within a week and sparked market-wide euphoria. After the first week of the final quarter of 2021, BTC hit the $ 55,000 mark and hovered briefly above it on October 6, 2021. With a gradually higher dominance rate in the last few days paired with solid price gains, Bitcoin is further solidifying its position in the market.
Bitcoin price 4-hour chart | Source: Tradingview
The rally accelerated further when billionaire George Soros’s Soros Fund Management confirmed it was trading in BTC. It seems that with the price and popularity of Bitcoin, institutions are becoming more interested in the digital asset.
On the other hand, the market has not been able to sustain a strong trend for very long last month. This leads to considerable skepticism about the current rally by BTC. However, there are signs that point to an explosive development in the near future.
Bullish divergence confirms price move higher
When the price hit the critical level of $ 55,000 for the first time since May 10, Bitcoin’s NVT model shows that October was the first month the index had seen a bullish divergence since February of this year. This represents a strong and positive upward trend.
NVT. Token circulation | The source: Sanbase
In addition, data from IntoTheBlock indicates that IOMAP, when Bitcoin for the first time since the 7th, bought 212,000 BTC over 353,780 addresses.
The source: IntoTheBlock
In addition, it is also the first time that Bitcoin Network has sustained a large percentage of circulating supply (around 85.25 percent) for more than 3 months. In particular, BTC’s share of the 3-month HODL supply was at an all-time low of 14.75% on October 6, which also indicates supply compression.
Bitcoin 3 Month HODL Delivery Percentage | The source: Dylan LeClair
One long-term upward trend for BTC is that coins have been pouring out of the exchanges continuously over the past month, which has resulted in a tightening of liquidity supply. On the price front, the stochastic RSI had its second bullish monthly crossover between the 20 and 80 lines this cycle.
As reported by Bitcoin Magazine, it is an extremely bullish crossover that has only occurred two more times in the past: September 2013 and May 2012. In 2013, it drove the BTC price by 2,700%, while in 2012 it drove has increased by more than 770%.
Stochastic RSI crossover | The source: TechDev
The warning signs remain
While Bitcoin’s price action looks pretty bullish in October, an interesting trend to note is that funding rates are getting too positive, suggesting that the market is expecting another uptrend. This can lead to mass selling of positions and the beginning of a downward movement.
In addition, the classic euphoria setup has made investors extremely greedy for BTC. So it wouldn’t be surprising if the price were corrected and retested $ 50,000 as a support. Analyst TXMC noted the same thing, stating that a consolidation is expected within days when BTC drops nearly $ 50,000. It looks like some consolidation will occur as the path to the new ATH is established and the rate of increase will slow down.
Leah Wald, CEO of Valkyrie Investments, sees $ 50,000 as vital support for the bull run for the rest of the year.
“The real key psychological hurdle is the $ 50,000 level … If BTC can break through and hold $ 50,000, we expect this rally to bring them close to the fourth quarter high.
But if BTC continues to encounter resistance at $ 50,000 and does not break through or establish support, analysts believe it will likely drop back to $ 45,000 and consolidate to $ 50,000 before another rally.
However, Wald said she cannot accurately predict the price of BTC if it holds the $ 50,000 support.
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According to AZCoin News