Bitcoin failed to break the September curse as its price fell more than 7% for the month despite a sharp surge just before trading closed. However, Bitcoin is expected to make a comeback in October, a month known for positive uptrends.
Bybt data shows that BTC ended October in the green for most of the time since 2013 – with a success rate of over 77%. Last year, the top cryptocurrency surged 28% to top $ 13,500 after ending at around $ 10,800 (7.5% loss) in September.
Monthly profit of Bitcoin since 2013 | Source: Bybt
Similarly, Bitcoin gained 10% in late October 2019, despite a decline of around 14% the previous month. That makes September a month of sales for retailers, with a record 7 out of 9 losses since 2013.
In contrast, October appears to be a period of declining purchases, suggesting that traders are likely to push Bitcoin price higher on October 31st.
Despite alarming signals from China’s more intense crackdown and stricter US regulatory stance on the crypto sector, the October fractals are still active.
Additionally, speculation that the Federal Reserve capped its $ 120 billion monthly bond purchase program through the end of the year appears to have limited Bitcoin’s upside prospect.
The US Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policy combined with near-zero interest rates played a major role in pushing the price of Bitcoin from below $ 4,000 in March 2020 to almost $ 65,000 in April 2021.
But despite the short-term setbacks, a variety of key indicators suggest that investors want to continue to participate in the booming crypto space.
Capital inflows from institutional investors
Tracking service data CryptoCompare found in its report that volume related to digital asset investment products rose 9.6% in September, while weekly product inflows rose to $ 69.7 million, the highest since May 2021.
“Bitcoin-based products saw the highest inflows of any asset, averaging $ 31.2 million per week. There could be an upward trend in the last quarter of 2021. ”
Cash flow in the average weekly net worth by assets for September | Source: CryptoCompare
Fractal EMA 20 weeks
Technical indicators also point to an upcoming bullish session for Bitcoin as it builds a base of around $ 40,000 before the end of September and reclaims key resistance as temporary support. Including the 21-week exponential moving average that determines the base level (21-week EMA).
A decline below the 21-week EMA has increased the likelihood of Bitcoin’s decline continuing by 78%. On September 27, the leading cryptocurrency fell below the green wave (as shown in the graph below) but regained it as support for October trading.
Weekly BTC price chart and Upside moves are focused on the 21-week EMA | Source: TradingView
Historically, price movements above the 21-week EMA, accompanied by increased volume, resulted in explosive Bitcoin bullruns. If the fractal repeats itself, BTC price could be heading for new record highs in the coming weeks.
Breaking out bullish pennant
Another technical indicator that also predicts a positive outcome for Bitcoin is a bullish pennant.
In particular, after a rally of more than 500%, the price of BTC consolidates within two converging trend lines.
Traditional analysts see these sideways movements as a sign of a continuation of price upwards. They predict that BTC will break above the top trendline of the pattern and rise by the length of the previous uptrend known as the flagpole.
Weekly Bitcoin Price Chart and bullish flag structure | Source: TradingView
Hence, Bitcoin’s path of least resistance appears to be up and a possible breakout move would push the price to $ 100,000 (flagpole around $ 50,000 high).
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According to Cointelegraph