Bitcoin (BTC) started the new week in a precarious position – below $ 45,000 and well below some major moving averages. What’s next?
Almost a week after unleashing a spate of leveraged positions that forced the market to $ 42,800, Bitcoin wiped out most of its subsequent rally.
The weekend caused a small pattern shift and for now the bearish volatility has stabilized. With BTC / USD down 13% in a week, Cointelegraph will take a look at five things that can help traders predict the next move.
Stocks should recover
Shares are expected to outperform this week after selling pressures added to Bitcoin’s troubles in the first half of September.
With a red week after them, expect stocks to rebound now and continue a trend that has shaped the market since the coronavirus crashed in March 2020.
Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole Investments, “Expect Stocks To Rise This Week And Bring Some Relief To Bitcoin” forecast.
Bitcoin’s general relationship with macro trends has become increasingly questionable over the past year. However, shocks to the system continue to affect the price of BTC, as demonstrated by the Federal Reserve’s virtual summit in Jackson Hole in early September.
“The world still views Bitcoin as an asset risk,” Edwards Add in the comments along with a comparison table.
“Almost every Bitcoin correction in 2021 correlates with an S&P500 correction of -2% or more.”
On the other hand, strong stocks can help keep the strength of the US dollar under control, which also gives Bitcoin more leeway.
The US dollar currency index (DXY) briefly rebounded towards 93 last week before pausing to consolidate gains, a process that is continuing.
Spot prices continue to fall below the bullish indicators
Forecasts suggest that macro moves could be the deal breakers when it comes to BTC price action this week.
After swinging over the weekend, there was last minute volatility on Sunday that ended with BTC / USD falling below $ 45,000.
With spot traders Hedging your bets On the other hand, there has probably never been a greater discrepancy between on-chain metrics, adoption phenomenon, and price.
“Stablecoin liquidity is growing, Bitcoin hits 3-year low on the stock exchanges, coins are waking up”, CEO of Moskovski Capital Lex Moskovski summary.
“If the macro does not move the bed, the next step up is programmed.”
Moskovski then added that macro markets did indeed start the week in the green, with stablecoins not being used as collateral for short sales making a clear bullish argument.
Stablecoins are always expensive and are not used as collateral for short sales.
Legacy finance opens in green.
What’s your selling point, soldier? pic.twitter.com/J2PMtsRVWn
– Lex Moskovski (@mskvsk) September 13, 2021
As Cointelegraph reported, current estimates look at $ 43,000 and $ 38,000 as potential minimum prices, with recovery from such levels still possible, albeit well below moving averages.
September was a historically bad month for Bitcoin, so price predictions have tended to be “real” since October.
“Remember that most of the time Bitcoin has a red month in September and a massive price spike in the fourth quarter,” noted Twitter user Lark Davis Tell followers Second.
“BTC could still hit 100,000 by the end of the year.”
The experienced dealer Peter Brandt sounds the alarm – at least for now.
“There is a name for this chart pattern. Anyone want to guess what it’s called “he tweeted along with the daily chart showing an apparent collapse of the bearish pennant structure.
“Dance with 2017”
It’s not all doom and darkness – when it comes to this halving, Bitcoin is still dancing “with 2017” this year in terms of price gains.
That comes from data from the trading platform Decentrader, which this week signals that BTC / USD is still on track in 2021 after halving the block subsidies for the year.
Decentrader-Analyst Filbfilb: “Jump with 2017 at this point. speak in the comments on the weekend.
The graph shows the extent to which the May miner has progressed too far. Bitcoin used to be a rally from 2013 to 2017 and then fell in May to create a new downward pattern, a trend that eventually continued.
As Cointelegraph reported, the “double-top” phenomenon is still that analysts are betting how Bitcoin will emerge in 2021 – similar to 2013 and 2017 – with a price decline corresponding to the May crash.
All-time high for illiquid monthly supply
One feature that distinguished last week’s bearish environment from the previous week was investor behavior – people kept buying.
Contrary to panic at times like March 2020, oversupply flooded the market last week with speculators looking to buy hard.
According to statistician Willy Woo, all classes of Bitcoin investors have either topped up their positions or have remained neutral during the recent turmoil.
“The whale was added recently. Minnows continue to pile up. Holders of 10-1000 BTC are mostly solid, ”he said Disclosure Sunday along with data from online string analysis company Glassnode.
“Publicly held reserves are decreasing (mostly exchanges and ETFs decrease while companies are added).”
If bitcoin’s supply is in demand more than ever, similar data reaffirms the point. As analyst William Clemente noted, the past week hasn’t had much of an impact on the Hodler patterns.
“93% of Bitcoin’s supply has not changed for at least a month. This is an all time high. Just one more metric that shows how bullish the supply momentum is, ”said Mr commented, citing Glassnode data.
What was once greed is now fear …
That’s all for a change to the gauge of investor sentiment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is set to release some curious data on market sentiment this week.
Related: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies You Should See This Week: BTC, ALGO, ATOM, XTZ, EGLD
The decline to $ 42,800 lowered the indicators from “extreme greed” to “fear,” a psychological area that lasted through Sunday.
Towards the end of the weekend, however, the index added new “greed” – although price action actually continued to decline.
At the time of writing on Monday, Fear & Greed was trading at 44/100 – still in the “fear” range – while BTC / USD is trading below $ 45,000.
However, the slightly positive financing ratios between the stock exchanges did not reduce the possibility of a “short squeeze”, which influenced the price development.