Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes expects Ethereum to hit $5,000 by Q1 2023. His prediction is based on two criteria: central bank pivot and successful Ethereum The Merge -both of these will drive the price of the second largest cryptocurrency.
While the Fed pivot will likely have a bullish effect on all asset prices, Merge represents an Ethereum-specific event that, in his view, “will have a potent impact on the price of ETH.”
The Merge is a long-awaited Ethereum upgrade that will transform the network’s consensus mechanism from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. That means Ethereum miners will become obsolete, while crypto holders will be able to make a profit by staking their shares.
While the primary goal of the upgrade is to increase ETH’s energy efficiency, it is also expected to reduce Ether’s supply release rate by 90%. Combined with the growing ecosystem of users constantly burning ETH through transaction fees, Hayes believes the upgrade itself will “push the price of Ether exponentially.”
The Merge has been delayed due to technical complications for years, but the developers believe it will happen on September 19.
Hayes also believes this moment is accurate, as Ethereum miners are starting to worry about its reality. In fact, the former CEO claims to have contacted many Chinese Ethereum mining community members who are planning to hold a hard fork that continues using proof of work.
The Federal Reserve has pursued a hawkish monetary policy for months to contain record-high inflation. The Fed’s action has primarily contributed to the sell-off in both equity and crypto markets.
Hayes believes the Fed will likely reverse this trend within a few months and return to money printing to protect the economy’s health.
Despite low unemployment, the economy has entered a recession due to two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Moreover, Americans have become even more pessimistic about the state of the economy than they were during the covid pandemic.
In an earlier blog post, Hayes argued that the US also needed to weaken its currency against the euro and yen to protect the international economy.
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